Updated Air Quality Report for Central Oregon

Smoke Synopsis (prepared by Daniel Chan & Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor)­­­­­        Air quality monitors indicate that yesterday’s air quality was moderate for particulate matter in Madras and Prineville. Bend and Sisters continued to experience good air quality.  Thunder showers are expected in the area today along with increased humidity.  Lightning is unlikely to result in new fire starts.  Any fire growth and resulting smoke in the next couple of days will be mostly related to burn-out operations.    Wind is forecast to come from the West this afternoon which will push smoke from fires to the East.  Strong winds associated with thundershowers can disperse smoke. Rain associated with thundershowers can also wash out particulate matter in the air.    Good air quality is likely to continue at Bend and Sisters.  Prineville probably will see some improvement from yesterday, but air quality is likely to remain in the Moderate range for today.  Madras is likely to continue to have Moderate condition for today as it is largely downwind of the active Logger Unit Fires.  Cooler temperature and chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.  Fire fighters are expected to continue to gain ground on fires in the area. Wind is forecast to come from Southwest in the morning and then shift to the West in the afternoon.  Smoke will be pushed to the Northeast in the morning and then to the East in the afternoon.   Air Quality Outlook (Particulate Matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) Site Monday July 21, 2014 AQI Tuesday forecast July 22, 2014 AQI Wednesday forecast July 23, 2014 AQI Disclaimer: Warning: The data for 7/21 have been obtained from automated instruments and have not been subjected to a quality assurance review to determine their accuracy. They are presented for public awareness and should not be considered final. Conditions such as power outages and equipment malfunctions can produce invalid data. Bend Good Good Good Madras Moderate Moderate Good Prineville Moderate Good Good Sisters Good Good Good Warm Spgs No Information Moderate Good AQI Index (µg/m3) Potential Health Impacts Actions to Protect Yourself Good (0-12) Air quality is satisfactory and poses little or no health risk. None Moderate (13-35) Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people. Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (36-55) Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects. The general public is not likely to be affected. People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion. Unhealthy (56-150) Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects. The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion. Very Unhealthy (151-250) Triggers a health alert, meaning everyone may experience more serious health effects Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors. For more information see the Oregon Smoke blog: http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com Air Quality data can be viewed at: http://www.deq.state.or.us/aqi/index.aspx

WILDFIRE SMOKE FORECAST

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE

1:30 PM PDT MON JUL 21, 2014

SIGNIFICANT FIRE INFORMATION:

Numerous wildfires in various stages of containment extend from central to eastern Oregon.

For updated “Significant Fire” details, visit ODF’s fire blog at http://wildfireoregondeptofforestry.blogspot.com/ or the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center (NWCC) at http://www.nwccweb.us/index.aspx.

A “Significant Fire Potential” map, for ODF protected lands, is available at (http://nfdrs.smkmgt.com/ODF_Significant_Fire_Potential.png).

AIR QUALITY:

DEQ smoke monitoring sensors are indicating generally good air quality throughout central and eastern Oregon at this time.

Statewide air quality index readings are available at http://www.deq.state.or.us/aqi/index.aspx

SMOKE DISPERSION FORECAST:

Wildfire smoke dispersion depends on the stability of the atmosphere as well as wind direction and speed. A stable atmosphere holds smoke to the ground and an unstable atmosphere allows smoke to rise and dissipate. Smoke is typically mixed to higher altitudes during the afternoon, when daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. Conversely, smoke tends to settle near the ground and in drainages during the overnight and early morning hours.

TODAY:

Upper level low is northwest of Vancouver Island and slowly moving toward the state. Clouds are moving through the state from the southwest to northeast. With the heating of the day some thundershowers will start to develop. Mixing levels will be good this afternoon and keep wildfire smoke mostly dispersed. Low-level wind flow is mainly light but favoring southwesterly. This may shift from southwest to west and maybe northwest in some locations later this afternoon. Wind flow lightens overnight and becomes mainly influenced by local terrain.

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY:

Upper low moves to just off the coast on Tuesday and inland on Wednesday. This will increase showers and thundershowers and likely reduce fire activity on most of the active fires. However, new fire starts are possible, especially over south central Oregon, where less moisture is likely to occur. Mixing will be mostly good and wind flow mostly S to SW Tuesday then becoming erratic later Tuesday due to thunderstorm development. Expect SW to W flow Wednesday as the low starts to move through. With moisture, good mixing and good wind flow, smoke problems should be minimal.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Upper low moves to the east and weakens Thursday and Friday. Flat upper level ridge moves in to dry and warm the air mass. Expect mixing heights to become quite poor overnight but remain good during the daytime. Wind flow decreases and turns northwesterly on Thursday, light drainage flow overnight, and northerly on Friday. Communities to the south or southeast of fires would likely be most susceptible to impact, although most fires would likely not have much smoke production.

Current weather forecasts from the Portland, Medford, and Pendleton National Weather Service offices are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/, http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/, and http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pdt/ respectively.

This bulletin is also available on the web at

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/DAILY/wfsmoke.htm

ODF Smoke Management Meteorologist

Burn Operations Commence on Sunflower Wildfire to Strengthen Containment

Incident: Sunflower Fire Wildfire
Released: 3 hrs. ago

The weather is favorable enough to allow firefighters on the Sunflower wildfire to being burn operations in the Big Willow Spring Creek drainage to strengthen the containment line. Smoke may be visible from Monument, Oregon. So far, crews are making good progress.

Updated Air Quality Report to Bridge 99/Logging Unit/Shaniko Fires

Smoke Synopsis (prepared by Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor)­­­­­

Yesterday’s higher humidities and cooler temperatures coupled with moderately strong winds reduced smoke concentrations in most communities around the Bridge99, Logging Unit Complex and Shaniko Butte fires.  Monitors indicate that yesterday’s air quality was moderate for particulate matter in Madras and Prineville.  Bend and Sisters continued to experience good air quality. Today’s light winds will hinder smoke from clearing in communities downwind (east) of the Logging Unit Complex and Shaniko Butte fires.  Air quality in Madras and Warm Springs is likely to remain moderate until late afternoon when winds pick up. Tuesday’s forecast indicates stronger winds associated with storm front.  Morning winds will drive any smoke towards the northeast.  Winds will shift drift smoke to an easterly direction in the mid-afternoon.  Air quality will likely remain in the moderate range for Madras and Warm Springs.   Sisters, Prineville, Bend and Redmond should see continued good air quality. Wednesday will see wind from a west to northwest direction.  Depending on the level of fire activity in the Logging Unit Complex smoke will impact Madras and Warm Springs.

Air Quality Outlook (Particulate Matter less than 2.5 ug/m³)

Site	Sunday July 20, 2014 AQI	Monday forecast July 21, 2014 AQI	Tuesday forecast July 22, 2014 AQI	Disclaimer: Warning: The data for 7/20 have been obtained from automated instruments and have not been subjected to a quality assurance review to determine their accuracy. They are presented for public awareness and should not be considered final. Conditions such as power outages and equipment malfunctions can produce invalid data.
Bend	Good	Good	Good
Madras	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Prineville	Moderate	Good	Good
Sisters	Good	Good	Good
Warm Spgs	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate

AQI Index (µg/m3)	Potential Health Impacts	Actions to Protect Yourself
Good (0-12)	Air quality is satisfactory and poses little or no health risk.	None
Moderate (13-35)	Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.	Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (36-55)	Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.	People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy (56-150)	Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.	The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy (151-250)	Triggers a health alert, meaning everyone may experience more serious health effects	Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.

For more information see the Oregon Smoke blog: http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com

Air Quality data can be viewed at: http://www.deq.state.or.us/aqi/index.aspx