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Smoke Forecast for Monday-Wednesday August 3-5, 2015

Monday, August 3, 2015

The figure below shows the current air quality around the State as of 3:22 pm.  Note, worse concentrations of smoke are occurring in southwestern portions of the state (indicated by the red dots), while moderate air quality is occurring in the NE and central portions of the state (indicated by the yellow dots).  The green dots indicate locations of good air quality and the grey dots indicate a station which is currently not reporting (e.g, Crater Lake National Park).

Figure 1.  Observed Air Quality for Oregon for today, Monday August 3, 2015

The next two figures are the Blue Sky Model predicted 24-hour average smoke concentrations and the maximum hourly smoke concentration across the State for today (August 3, 2015).   The difference between the daily average and the maximum hourly concentrations give an indication of the expected change in smoke concentration predicted to occur throughout the day.  The widespread moderate smoke over NE oregon is not predicted to last all day, whereas the smoke over SW oregon does not appear to change significantly.

Figure 2.  Daily Average Model-Predicted Smoke Concentrations For Monday August 3, 2015


Figure 3.  Maximum Model-Predicted Hourly Smoke Concentration for Monday, August 3, 2015



On Tuesday, smoke is predicted to spread south and eastward, as shown in Figure 4. Thus communities in SW Oregon will remain smoky.  Figure 5 illustrates that smoke is predicted to become heavy at times over SW Oregon and for Klamath Falls.

Figure 4.  Daily Average Model-Predicted Smoke Concentrations For Tuesday August 4, 2015


Figure 5.  Maximum Model-Predicted Hourly Smoke Concentration for Tuesday, August 4 2015




On Wednesday, smoke should dissipate over central and eastern portions of the state, but still remain in relatively high concentrations in the SW portion of the State.


Figure 6.   Daily Average Model-Predicted Smoke Concentrations For Wednesday August 5 2015



Figure 7.  Maximum Model-Predicted Hourly Smoke Concentration for Wednesday, August 5 2015