Today, air quality will remain moderate to unhealthy across much of the State, from the southwest to the northeast, with good air quality occurring in the northwestern and southeastern portion of the State. Figure 1 below illustrates the AQI readings as of 11:30 am across the State. Note, Enterprise is experiencing the worst air quality as indicated by the red dot. Refer to the air quality report for NE Oregon posted on this blog for more details of what to expect in this region.
Figure 1. Oregon DEQ AQI at 11:30 am on Thursday August 27, 2015.
The Blue Sky smoke model is showing a similar pattern for the next two days across the state, as shown in Figures 2 and 3 below. Note, however, that with the expected increase in relative humidity and cooler temperatures in the western portion of the region, fire activity is expected to diminish. Because the Blue Sky modeling framework assumes today's and tomorrow's smoke production from the fires will be the same as yesterday, it cannot account for the expected change in fire behavior. Consequently, I believe the model is over-predicting what will occur for the southwest portion of the State on Friday.
Figure 2. Average Smoke Conditions Forecasted for Thursday, August 27, 2015.
Figure 3. Average Smoke Conditions Forecasted for Friday, August 28, 2015
Figure 1. Oregon DEQ AQI at 11:30 am on Thursday August 27, 2015.
The Blue Sky smoke model is showing a similar pattern for the next two days across the state, as shown in Figures 2 and 3 below. Note, however, that with the expected increase in relative humidity and cooler temperatures in the western portion of the region, fire activity is expected to diminish. Because the Blue Sky modeling framework assumes today's and tomorrow's smoke production from the fires will be the same as yesterday, it cannot account for the expected change in fire behavior. Consequently, I believe the model is over-predicting what will occur for the southwest portion of the State on Friday.
Figure 2. Average Smoke Conditions Forecasted for Thursday, August 27, 2015.
Figure 3. Average Smoke Conditions Forecasted for Friday, August 28, 2015
