WILDFIRE SMOKE
FORECAST
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE
1155 AM PDT SUN
JUN 8, 2014
SIGNIFICANT FIRE INFORMATION:
Two Bulls Fire –
10 miles NW of Bend,
OR.
For updated
“Significant Fire” details, visit ODF’s fire blog at http://wildfireoregondeptofforestry.blogspot.com/
or the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center (NWCC) at http://www.nwccweb.us/index.aspx.
A “Significant
Fire Potential” map, for ODF protected lands, is available at (http://nfdrs.smkmgt.com/ODF_Significant_Fire_Potential.png).
AIR QUALITY:
DEQ nephelometer readings are
indicating the presence of significant smoke in Sisters, Bend, and Crater Lake,
with elevated smoke levels as far south as Klamath Falls. Satellite imagery is detecting a smoke plume
extending southward, from the “Two Bulls Fire,” across south-central Oregon;
turning southeastward across NE California, northern Nevada, and into western
Utah.
Statewide air
quality index readings are available at http://www.deq.state.or.us/aqi/index.aspx
SMOKE DISPERSION FORECAST:
Wildfire smoke dispersion depends on the stability
of the atmosphere as well as wind direction and speed. A stable atmosphere
holds smoke to the ground and an unstable atmosphere allows smoke to rise and dissipate. Smoke is typically mixed to higher
altitudes during the afternoon, when daytime heating destabilizes the air mass.
Conversely, smoke tends to settle near the ground and in drainages during the
overnight and early morning hours.
TODAY:
A stable NW flow aloft is continuing to bring dry weather
to the region. Transport winds are
generally NW-N across central Oregon; veering to the N-NE across south-central
Oregon. However, local SE-SW transport winds are also pushing smoke from the
“Two Bulls Fire” get into Sisters, Oregon.
Areas of smoke will likely continue from near Sisters to Bend; southward
to Klamath Falls this afternoon and evening, with the heaviest smoke
concentrations nearest to the active fire.
Stabilization of the air mass tonight could also lead to locally
increased levels of smoke, as inversions form; trapping smoke near the
ground.
Monday -
Wednesday:
A dry and stable NW flow aloft should to continue to
produce generally NW transport winds during the daytime periods with local
drainage flows becoming more dominant in the overnight periods. This will lead possible air quality impacts,
in all directions, in the immediate proximity of the “Two Bulls Fire;” possibly
extending SE-SW of the wildfire to the California border.
EXTENDED
OUTLOOK:
A stronger weather system is forecast to come onshore
Thursday; bringing cooler temperatures, increasing W-NW winds, and a threat of
showers and thundershowers to central Oregon.
Current Weather
Forecasts from the Portland, Medford, Pendleton, and Boise National Weather
Service offices are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/, http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/, http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pdt/, and http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/boi/
respectively.
Current Western
Region Fire Weather Forecasts are available via: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/firewx/main.php.
This bulletin is
also available at:
ODF Smoke Management Meteorologist