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Smoke Forecast for Umpqua North/High Cascades Complex -- Aug. 31, 2017

Smoke Outlook:  Umpqua North/High Cascades Complex        
Issued for: Thursday 31, 2017 
Air Resource Advisor: Jen Croft, Aaron Wilkerson 

Fire Activity:  High Cascades is reported at 25,232 acres with 20 fires.  Umpqua North is reported at 23,501 with 14 fires. Hot and dry conditions combined with clear skies will contribute to an increase in fire behavior today.  This will cause active short crown runs group torching and short-range spotting along uncontrolled perimeter. Expect see interior unburned islands becoming active with smoke and flames contributing to visible large smoke plumes

Smoke: Winds out of the northeast will provide some relief over the previous days smoky conditions.
Roseburg, Glide and Shady Cove will see significantly better air quality all day. The Rogue Valley down to Medford is not likely to see a dramatic improvement but may experience pockets of clearing throughout the day with lighter smoke. East of the Cascades, Chiloquin and Klamath are expected to see some slight improvements throughout the day. Thursday night into Friday, a stronger east to west gradient will set up. This will likely bring stronger sustained easterly winds and gusts across the Complex area during the overnight hours and through the morning bringing improved air quality to Crater Lake, Prospect, Chiloquin, Klamath and Shady Cove. 
*The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has issued an Air Quality Alert in and around the outlook area and is in effect until further notice. Wildfires burning in the region combined with forecast conditions will cause air quality levels to fluctuate and could be at unhealthy levels.
For additional information...please visit the web site at: http://www.oregon.gov/deq
Air Quality Outlook
Sites with air quality monitors
Site
Thursday
08/31
Friday
09/01
Saturday
09/02
Notes for TODAY’s forecast
Roseburg
Good
Moderate
USG
NE winds providing relief all day
Glide
Good
Moderate
USG
NE winds providing relief all day
Toketee**
Unhealthy
USG
USG
Pockets of relief throughout the day
Diamond Lake**
Moderate
Moderate
Good
Brief impact during late afternoon
Prospect
Unhealthy
USG
Unhealthy
Pockets of relief throughout the day
Shady Cove
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Brief impact during late afternoon
Crater Lake NP (visitor center)
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Brief impact during late afternoon
Chiloquin
USG
Moderate
Moderate
Clearing conditions until evening hours
Klamath
USG
Moderate
Moderate
Clearing conditions until evening hours
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity. AQI estimates for sites do not represent a full 24-hour time period.  Instead they reflect a period of time within the day where smoke impacts would be greatest.
AQI Index
Actions to Protect Yourself
Good
None

Moderate
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups*- USG
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy            
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
LimitedVery Unhealthy

Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

*Sensitive Groups include people with heart or lung disease, children, pregnant women and older adults



Oregon Smoke Blog:
Oregon Dept of Environmental Quality
Blanket Creek Fire Information
Umpqua North Complex Fire Information